Analytics
Model Performance
Every prediction is stored with its timestamp, model version, confidence and inputs. After each game the stored projection is graded against the actual result. Model gsai-1.4.2.
Model spread vs reference spread
Absolute error of each pre-game differential against the final margin
Across 68 graded games the model's average error was 0.0 pts lower than the reference. Sample sizes are small in demo mode; treat this as a calibration readout, not a guarantee.
| Week | Model MAE | Reference MAE | Model closer | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 5.5 | 5.9 | 62.5% | 16 |
| Week 2 | 5.4 | 4.9 | 50% | 16 |
| Week 3 | 6.5 | 6.7 | 56.3% | 16 |
| Week 4 | 7.1 | 7.2 | 56.3% | 16 |
| Week 5 | 11.9 | 9.3 | 25% | 4 |
Reference spreads are informational context supplied by a data provider and are shown only for comparison with the GAME SPY model projection. The model spread is the model's projected point differential — it is not a line, an offer, or a recommendation to wager. GAME SPY AI does not accept or place bets.
Accuracy by week
Winner hit rate per completed week
Win probability calibration
Predicted confidence vs observed hit rate
| Bucket | Predicted | Actual | N |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50–60% | 56% | 50% | 12 |
| 60–70% | 64.4% | 82.4% | 17 |
| 70–80% | 76% | 87% | 23 |
| 80–100% | 84.4% | 87.5% | 16 |
Player projection accuracy by position
Mean absolute error in fantasy points